Instagram ups its security for teens

Top News

• Instagram gets serious about protecting teens: Meta is moving under-18s to ‘teen’ accounts on Instagram. For kids on the photo-sharing service, that means default-private profiles, walls around unsolicited DMs, and limited notifications from 10 PM to 7 AM. To which we have to ask what took so long. Concerns about teenage social media use is a common conversation today; perhaps Meta wants to get in front of it.

• Meta bans RT: After the U.S. government designated Russian state outlet RT as “under the Foreign Missions Act,” and RT was accused of funnelling millions of dollars into the US media landscape to push Kremlin talking points, Meta gave the outlet the boot. RT remains active on other social networks, making us wonder if other services will follow Meta’s move.

• Can I bet on that? Polymarket has become a destination for election watchers and degens who want to watch — or participate in — betting on future outcomes. How accurate Polymarket’s crowdsourced views are remains to be seen, but the model has legs. So, naturally, there’s a crypto version of it coming. Via Wintermute and Chaos Labs, the new Polymarket competitor is entering the market as election season reaches fever-pitch.

OpenAI is on the TWiST500

OpenAI is a TWiST500 company because, well, it’s OpenAI. We talked about the company on the podcast this week, running some numbers on its potential new valuation. Let’s do the math together in written form so we can go a bit deeper.

Reporting indicates that OpenAI is in talks to raise billions more at a valuation of up to $150 billion. Cross that data point with reporting from the summer indicating that OpenAI was on a $3.4 billion annual run rate, and we can quickly come up with a working revenue multiple for the AI giant: 44.2x.

Pricey, but only so insane. First, that’s a multiple that many low-brow Series A rounds got back in 2021. So we should be a little slow to doubt OpenAI’s potential new revenue multiple without reminding ourselves that compared to startup prices just a few years ago, OpenAI is a steal at 44x ARR (or equivalent).

But that number is a little too high. We’re being unfair. The middle of the year was around a quarter ago, and OpenAI — presumably — grew in the last few months. You don’t get a +50% or greater markup in today’s venture market without very strong numbers.

So, how much did OpenAI grow from June to September? The company saw its top line run rate expand from $1.6 billion in December of 2023, or around $300 million per month. Call it three months since June for the sake of round numbers, and we could estimate that OpenAI is north of $4 billion in annual run rate today. A flat $4 billion run rate would work out to a 37.5x multiple against a $150 billion valuation.

Looking at these numbers, something doesn’t add up. Was OpenAI way too expensive before, and is correctly — fairly? — priced in its upcoming round? It seems weird that OpenAI was valued at nearly $100 billion before it turned on the revenue jets to the extent that it has lately — and is now seeing its valuation gains slow despite insane revenue expansion.

No matter — amongst the TWiST500 only Stripe challenges OpenAI for the crown of ‘most valuable,’ and we’re about to see which of the pair is really worth the most. — Alex

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This Week in Startups

E2009: Jason and Alex kick off the show with highlights from the All-In Summit and discuss media criticism and the state of journalism. They delve into OpenAI's latest model, its corporate structure, and the implications for the AI landscape. They also cover autonomous vehicle technology, economic insights on Fed rate cuts, and innovations in food preparation. The show wraps up with a discussion on Mr. Beast's business culture and strategies for large companies to maintain focus on their goals.

E2008: This episode throws it back to the Liquidity Summit. Meghan Reynolds presented a talk on "Relationship Advice: Of the LP / GP Sort," covering key topics in investor relations and fundraising strategies. She discussed the complexities of raising capital, rationalizing fund sizes, securing re-ups, and highlighted common pitching mistakes. Meghan also touched on market sentiment, single deal SPV dynamics, VC allocations, private credit, and overall market dynamics.

E2007: Another throwback to Liquidity Summit. Pejman Nozad shared his journey in building a $100 billion portfolio before joining Jason in a fireside chat. Jason Shuman presented "The New Power Law," and discussed the difference between good and great investment funds.

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Founder University

Applications are open for Founder University Cohort 9, a 12-week remote pre-accelerator program tailored towards navigating early-startup practices, building an MVP, and growing traction. Submit your application at Founder University — Cohort 9 begins on October 25th!

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