Kalshi's new $22B valuation may be cheap

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TWiST 500

TWiST500 stalwart Kalshi has raised money (again), this time $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation. Coatue led with several leading venture firms (Sequoia, a16z, IVP, and others) participating.

While announcing its new funding round and newly enlarged valuation (Kalshi was last valued at $11 billion on a post-money basis), the prediction market detailed its recent growth:

• Annualized volume in the month of April reached $140 million in 2023, $400 million in 2024, $5.5 billion in 2025, and $178 billion this year.

• The rise in volume is built on both regular punters and companies, with Kalshi reporting that in the “past six months, institutional trading volume has increased 800%.”

Asoundingly, Kalshi also claims to control “over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity, as well as the majority of global volume.” That got me thinking: Is Kalshi winning by that much? Dune data pegs Kalshi at $14.8 billion in prediction market volume in April, while Polymarket posted just over $9.0 billion. The $14.8 billion number when annualized lines up neatly with Kalshi’s claims, and it certainly appears to have the leading share of global prediction market volume by value.

Notably, Kalshi has posted consecutive-monthly growth in trading volume since August, 2025, while Polymarket shrank in April compared to March (per Dune data). Kalshi’s claims of market leadership appear real, though I’d argue that Polymarket’s growth in recent quarters has been nearly as impressive as Kalshi’s own; this is still a two-horse race.

And a race with a massive prize. Estimates vary concerning how much of a take rate Kalshi truly commands, but it’s likely lands between 1% and 2% based on my read of its fee schedule. That means the company is currently seeing trading volume that puts it around a $1.8 billion run rate, with the higher end at $3.5 billion (annualized). That’s a mountain of money, and more than enough to explain the new Kalshi round and its resulting valuation. — Alex

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