Nvestigating and Nvaluating Nvidia

Top News

• Nvidia’s reports earnings, shares slide: Nvidia’s stock is down a few points in after-hours trading after the company reported better-than-expected results in its most recent quarter. The American chip giant cleared $46.74 billion in revenue during its second fiscal quarter, ahead of an anticipated $46.06 billion result. Notably Nvidia did not sell its detuned H20 chips to China in the quarter, and its current-quarter guidance of $54.0 billion worth of total revenue assumes zero “H20 shipments to China.” Now, onto the earnings call but for now Nvidia seems to have both failed to melt, or soar.

• Bytedance plans massive tender: After stacking $48 billion worth of revenue in the second quarter, Chinese tech giant and TikTok parent company Bytedance is planning another tender offer for its employees. This time, at a valuation of $330 billion, up a little more than 5% from the last time it offered a similar buyout a half-year ago. Reuters reports that the tender will execute at just over $200 per share. As many of the world’s largest technology companies stay private, deals of this sort are becoming commonplace. Recall that Stripe held its own at a $91.5 billion valuation earlier this year.

• Vercel plots massive funding round: Best known for the Next.js React framework, Vercel’s business is booming. After doubling to $200 million ARR in a year, the company is drumming up a new funding round, Bloomberg reports. Accel could lead a nine-figure investment into Vercel at a valuation that could reach $9 billion. That’s nearly a tripling from its last private-market valuation, which put the company’s worth at $3.25 billion on a post-money basis. Partially driving the company’s growth is its v0 service, a tool that helps users turn prompts into apps. The service was announced in late 2023, and rebranded as v0.app earlier this month.

TWiST500

Today, TWiST500 member company Gusto announced that it is acquiring Guideline, a fintech startup known for its work in providing retirement savings options to workers. Given that Gusto deals with the paying of staff, snapping up a 401k provider makes good sense.

What surprised me was just how much money Guideline had raised in its life: $339 million, including a massive $200 million round in June of 2021. That round, led by General Atlantic, valued Guideline at $1.15 billion, more than doubling the $450 million valuation they had raised at one year earlier.

So was Guideline yet another 2021-era unicorn that ran out of capital, and is fire-selling itself to another company to avoid death? Probably not. Despite not sharing a purchase price, Guideline signaled to the public that its sale wasn’t for proverbial peanuts. The company writes that it brings to Gusto:

• 65,000 customers

• $20 billion worth of customer AUM

• Growth, as it came in second place nationally in 2024 for number of plans added

Did Guideline sell for more than it was valued at in its final private round? I’m less confident in this claim, but probably not. Still, in a single move, Gusto is grabbing new customers that it can cross-sell, plus a nice chunk of revenue. For the acquiring company, the transaction makes basic sense, pricing to one side.

Thinking broadly, Gusto, Rippling, and Deel are just some of the unicorns built to help companies around the world hire and pay workers. They have a combined worth of tens of billions of dollars. And they are capable of eating other unicorns. Going public, however, remains too tough a nut to crack. So far, at least. — Alex

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This Week in Startups

E2169: It’s an all-new TWiST! Jason and Alex start off by talking about cycles of cynicism, and how even the most amazing technological innovations are always greeted by raised eyebrows, doubt, and trepidation. Then it’s on to a huge news day, with updates about Intel, AirBnB’s co-founder joining the government, the Netskope IPO, Perplexity’s rev share deal with publishers, and much much more.

E2168: On today’s TWiST, some of the fallout from Terra and Luna’s $60 billion implosion, more hints about a potential September rate cut, Canva’s making a major comeback (and feuding with Figma), PLUS OpenAI officially crossed $1 billion in monthly revenue. Finally, Jason and Alex consider Uber’s latest robotaxi push, and why it has already sparked protests from Wuhan to Boston.

E2167: Jason’s away, so Alex is taking over, with two fresh TWiST 500 founder interviews. First up, Chalk CEO Marc Freed-Finnegan on one of AI’s secret bottlenecks: data FRESHNESS. Hear how his company is delivering real-time pipelines and why some are calling them the “next Databricks.” THEN, Tollbit CEO Toshit Panigrahi lays out how he signed 1,400 publishers up for his “bot paywall,” and how he plans to reshape the agentic AI landscape.

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Angel University is Back!

Jason and Mike Savino are hosting our next virtual Angel University workshop on Tuesday, October 7. Jason will share proven strategies he’s used to invest $200M+ in over 500 startups. Whether you’re new to angel investing or looking to sharpen your skills, this is your chance to learn directly from one of the most active angel investors in the world. Register now at angel.university!

Founder U is Coming to the MENA Region!

Our 12-week pre-accelerator—designed to help early-stage founders build and grow—kicks off this fall in Saudi Arabia. The first cohort launches in Riyadh on November 3rd, followed by in-person and virtual sessions throughout the program. Founders in MENA: this is your chance to turn your idea into a business and get world-class insights on building a successful startup. Apply today: https://mena.founder.university/

SF Live-Work Space Now Available

Need a flexible living and working environment in San Francisco? This thoughtfully designed loft-style residence at 787 Bryant St., the heart of the vibrant SOMA district and the city’s creative hub, is now available for rent or purchase. Check the listing for more details.

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