Firefly like an eagle

Author

Alex Wilhelm
July 28, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

Top News

  • Firefly sets terms for $5.5B IPO: Firefly Aerospace, a spacetech startup that builds launch vehicles and small spaceships, has set a $35 to $39 per-share IPO price range. That works out to a mid-point valuation of around $5.8 billion, a steep step-up from the roughly $2 billion valuation that Firefly earned in late 2024. Alex has notes on Firefly’s numbers here. As the world waits for SpaceX to list, Firefly’s IPO will set the tone for future spacetech exits and provide real-world comp data for venture valuations simultaneously.

  • Samsung’s Tesla deal boosts America’s chip aspirations: While Intel’s chip foundry business continues to struggle, Samsung has picked up a huge partner in Tesla, which will work with the South Korean technology giant to build its upcoming AI6 chips. For those watching re-shoring trends, the Samsung-Tesla deal involves a future Texas fab from the chaebol, the same state where Tesla is based. Samsung, TSMC, and other companies are expanding their fab footprints here in the United States.

  • Z.ai attacks AI’s cost curve: DeepSeek shook the world earlier this year when it released R1, a competitive model that it said had cost a pittance to train and was inexpensive to run. Stocks sold off, as some investors began to worry that huge capex outlays from tech giants could be too hot for the market to handle. Ultimately, things settled down. But now, Z.ai’s new GLM 4.5 model family is continuing the trend. Its impressive performance comes with a small price point attached for access through the company’s API. And it’s open-source, so you can run it on the cheap yourself if you have the GPUs.

TWiST500

While hundreds of early-stage startups are on the TWiST500, the late-stage contingent makes so much news that we can hardly keep up. So, today, two items both from the unicorns:

  • Ramp could raise at a $21 billion valuation: The Information reports that the corporate spend startup is gearing up to raise even more capital at a new valuation, adding $5 billion to the company’s total worth. After reaching a revenue run rate of $700 million earlier this year, Ramp’s breakout success has only increased as it has matured. (Startup lesson: Ramp’s ascent over former market leader Brex is a reminder that being second to arrive doesn’t mean you are automatically shooting for silver.)

  • Figma raises its IPO price: Now targeting a $30 to $32 per-share IPO price range, up from $25 to $28 per share, Figma is creeping closer to the value that Adobe offered to pay for it years ago. That deal fell apart under the weight of regulatory scrutiny, gifting Figma a $1 billion breakup fee in the process. For the VCs set to unlock billions worth of returns in its upcoming debut, the upped price is just the sort of good news for which they’ve been eagerly waiting.

As of today, Figma’s IPO is pipped for July 31st, with the far-smaller Ambiq IPO coming one day before. That means that the very first month of Q3 will see, at last, a marquee exit for a heavily venture-backed unicorn. May it set a strong final price, and trade even higher. — Alex

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This Week in Startups

E2156: Jason just got back from the big All-In AI Summit in DC, and he’s got a ton of behind-the-scenes anecdotes and observations to share. Hear about his immigration back-and-forth with VP JD Vance, his solar power debate with Energy Sec. Wright, Jensen Huang and Lisa Su’s thoughts on AI job displacement, and even getting a shoutout from POTUS himself. PLUS Alex and Jason have a little free trade vs. tariff tet-a-tet, and we’re answering YOUR top queries from Reddit.

E2155: Alex returns with another three awesome TWiST 500 founder interviews. FIRST, Trey Holterman from Tennr on streamlining the process of seeing a health care specialist. THEN, Gill Verdon tells us about the future of thermodynamic computing and how it could fuel the AI revolution. FINALLY, Tyler Denk from Beehiiv on hitting $20M ARR, maintaining product velocity, and how his newsletter service differs from Substack.

E2154: Jason’s on the road this week, so Alex is doing quick-hit interviews with three of our favorite TWiST 500 founders. First up, John Jeremy Harris of Harbinger Motors shows us how they’re making EV batteries right here in the USA. Then, James Hawkins of PostHog advises us on the benefits of maintaining a low burn rate. Finally, Yoshi Yokokawa of Alpaca HQ swings by to talk about building in a niche category that’s no longer the Valley’s primary obsession.

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Founder U is coming to the MENA region!

Our 12-week pre-accelerator—designed to help early-stage founders build and grow—kicks off this fall in Saudi Arabia. The first cohort launches in Riyadh on November 3rd, followed by in-person and virtual sessions throughout the program. Founders in MENA: this is your chance to turn your idea into a business and get world-class insights on building a successful startup. Apply today: https://mena.founder.university/

LAUNCH Accelerator

Our current Accelerator batch is graduating! Watch 11 strong startups pitch to Jason and our investor-judges. We are livestreaming the event on Monday, July 28th at 12:30 PM PT. Register here.

Want to Work for This Week in Startups?

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