I'm in with the infra

Top News

• Google plans massive infra spend: Think you’ve seen massive AI buildout this year? That’s nothing. CNBC reports that Google’s AI infrastructure chief Amin Vahdat told his staff that compute must “double every 6 months” reaching “1000x in 4-5 years.” That’s a lot of spend, predicated on a lot of anticipated demand. Given the success of Gemini 3, the search giant just might be right.

• Kalshi is scaling rapidly: Why is Kalshi reportedly raising $1 billion against an $11 billion valuation so quickly after it raised at a $5 billion valuation? The Information reports that the company told investors that it is “on an annualized pace for between $600 million and $700 million in net revenue.” Yep, that will do it. (Arch-rival Polymarket is also growing quickly; predication markets are one of the hottest startup categories today.)

• Say hello to ads in your AI: Google confirmed that it is testing advertisements in its ‘AI mode,’ which offers AI-built responses to user queries. For those keeping score, this means that, whether you use Google for searches or answers, get ready for an advertising-forward experience. Of course, Google offers AI subscriptions, which means that some of its users likely won’t have to deal with these intrusions. OpenAI, you are up next.

TWiST 500

Closing out a busy news week, let’s check in on Sierra, a TWiST500 company co-founded by OpenAI board member and former Meta CTO Bret Taylor:

Sierra offers AI agents for customer support, racking up big-name customers like Cigna, SiriusXM, and Vans since its launch last year.

While 2025 was initially heralded as the Year of the Agent, it became clear early on that AI agents were too brittle to become general tools, and more specialized applications would drive adoption. Sierra’s revenue milestone is indication that 2025 was actually the Year of the Narrow Agent.

Not that Sierra will prove content with a single use-case. I expect the company to expand horizontally in time. With nine-figures worth of ARR under its belt, it won’t have a hard time raising the capital it needs, either.

Put the Sierra news in the ‘not all of AI is a bubble’ bucket, please. — Alex

A message from Sentry.io

Your team should be focused on shipping features — not chasing down bugs. New users get 3 months free of the Business plan which covers 150k errors. Go to sentry.io/twist and use the code TWIST

This Week in Startups

E2212: Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch stops by the show to tell us how enterprises can start getting more out of their AI pilots, why the West seems to lack leadership around open-source AI, and teach Jason and Alex the science of “benchmaxxing” (that is, focusing on your AI model scoring better on tasks rather than actually getting smarter). PLUS why everyone made the wrong call on OpenAI vs. Google, Kraken’s $20 billion valuation, Jason’s urgent M&A message, and more.

E2211: Grok 4.1 and Gemini 3 went HEAD TO HEAD this week, launching right on top of one another. But how do we really KNOW which who’s leading the seemingly endless AI Death Race? On a new TWiST, Jason and Alex survey the current AI landscape, and try to look beyond the mega-deals and benchmarking stats to get a real sense for the state of play. Plus Cloudflare shuts down the internet, how to turn off “Learn From This App” on iOS, ChatGPT takes a nosedive on Polymarket’s “Top AI” market, and more.

E2210: In a news-packed Monday show, Jason and Alex talk about Ramp’s huge raise, AI companies growing significantly faster than their SaaS counterparts, Joby’s big moves in Aub Dhabi, the death of San Francisco’s beloved bodega cat KitKat, Jeff Bezos’ grand return to the C-suite with Project Prometheus, and much more.

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• Pipedrive: Bring clarity and control to your sales process with Pipedrive, the #1 CRM for small and medium sized businesses. Supercharge your sales today. Start with a 30-day free trial at pipedrive.com/twist.

• Crusoe Cloud: Crusoe is the AI factory company. Reliable infrastructure and expert support. Visit crusoe.ai/build to reserve your capacity for the latest GPUs today.

• Northwest Registered Agent: Starting your business should be simple. With Northwest Registered Agent, you can form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. From LLCs to trademarks, domains to custom websites, they’ve got you covered. Get more privacy, more options, and more done—visit https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist today!

Founder University is headed to Tokyo!

Applications are now open for the 2026 cohort. Selected startups will take part in a global, three-part experience designed to accelerate growth and expand international reach:

• Tokyo Bootcamp: January 12–16

• Online Acceleration Program: January 19–March 6

• U.S. Travel Program: March 9–20

If you’re building something big and ready to go global, this is your moment. Apply now at launch.co/tokyo.

Investor Networking Lunch in SF

Jason and LAUNCH are hosting an investor networking lunch, followed by pitches from our latest Accelerator batch. We'd love for you to join us for Dim Sum in San Francisco on Friday, December 5th. (Or forward this to your investor friends.)

• Date/Time: Friday, December 5th, 2025 at 12-3PM PT

• Format: Dim sum lunch, followed by founder pitches & investor networking

• Location: TBA (Chinatown area)

Spots are limited, please RSVP here. The LAUNCH team will email you confirmation once your registration is accepted. You must be an accredited investor or work for a VC Fund to join.

SF Live-Work Space Now Available

Need a flexible living and working environment in San Francisco? This thoughtfully designed loft-style residence at 787 Bryant St., the heart of the vibrant SOMA district and the city’s creative hub, is now available for rent or purchase. Check the listing for more details.

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